To Support Ukraine, Learn the Lessons from Syria’s War
I didn’t anticipate President Putin would launch a war this aggressively in Ukraine. No one seemed to. But once he did, I knew how things would go, and that’s because I witnessed this kind of war before when I handled the first two years of the Syria crisis while working at the White House.
I was Director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council from early 2010 — through the collapse of the Lebanese government led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the beginning of the Arab Spring, and the unfolding of the Syria crisis in March 2011 — until August 2012, when President Obama issued his infamous “redline” related to Syria’s use of chemical weapons.
I learned many lessons handling the first two years of the Syria crisis that I believe are relevant for policy-makers figuring out their responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine. While the wars in Syria and Ukraine are very different — each has unique factors and circumstances — the way dictators respond to resistance is not all that different. And in addition to witnessing Bashar al-Assad’s playbook, I also saw Russia’s playbook in Syria. The U.S. government made mistakes in the Syria crisis due to inexperience, fear, and a number of false assumptions — the lessons from which could help craft a solid policy toward Ukraine.
1. DO NOT LET THE WAR LINGER. Seriously. Do everything in your power to put an end to it. Not contain it. END IT. These wars get WAY more complicated to respond to or intervene in as time passes. If the war lingers, we will see devastation for years to come — a horrific humanitarian crisis, torture and abuse of innocents, foreign fighters, millions displaced, and a destroyed country. As the aggression worsens, other governments always consider the things they said they would never consider. If that means arming Ukraine more heavily (e.g. fighter jets, drones) and/or giving Putin something — possibly a mix — then do it NOW.
2. DO NOT ASSUME PUTIN WILL EVER SEE YOUR SIDE. He simply won’t. For some reason we thought he would eventually see our side on Syria. I have no idea what we were thinking because not only did he not see our side, but he doubled down on backing Assad.
3. A DICTATOR STOPS AT NOTHING. Many people (not me) said Assad would never use chemical weapons against his own people. How could he, right? And wouldn’t he know that would be a “redline”? NO. Dictators don’t think like that. They will bulldoze a country if it means they will “win.” Since we didn’t exactly enforce the “redline” when Assad used chemical weapons on his people, Putin already likely perceives American and European weakness on this kind of behavior.
4. ASSUME THAT YOU WILL BE SURPRISED…THAT THE UNPREDICTABLE AND INHUMANE WILL HAPPEN. And because of that, you will be caught flat-footed. You had no idea it would turn this way. You never thought Putin would continue to other countries. You didn’t actually believe he would use a nuclear weapon. Assume the worst and prepare for it.
5. EVEN WITH A GROSS MISCALCULATION, DON’T ASSUME A DICTATOR FALLS EASILY. Putin is not alone, and he and his yes-men have rigged Russia’s political system in their favor. Even if one of his own military people or oligarchs were to push him out somehow (an unlikely scenario), it doesn’t mean they want a transition to democracy…Sometimes I still can’t believe Assad is still in power, and with no end in sight.
6. A DICTATOR HAS FRIENDS…AND HE WILL USE THEM. The news of Russia recruiting Syrian fighters doesn’t surprise me, but it SCARES me. A development like that would invite horrific terror into Ukraine. And why wouldn’t Syria offer them up? Given that Russia’s intervention in Syria is the only reason Assad didn’t fall, Assad is indebted to the Russian government. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Russia uses other friends — like Venezuela and Cuba — to somehow retaliate. We could find ourselves fighting to protect national security interests and assets all over the world.
7. CIVIC RESISTANCE IS CRITICAL — BUT IT CAN WEAKEN OVER TIME. I hate to write this because Ukrainian bravery & resolve have been remarkable and truly inspiring! But the Russian government also knows how to undermine that unity & will, and they will work at it.
8. NEVER BELIEVE A DICTATOR, THEY LIE THROUGH THEIR TEETH. Sometimes they know they’re lying, sometimes they believe their own lies. It doesn’t really matter — you should expect that since they live in delusional world, whatever they say is worth nothing. When dictators say they agree to a ceasefire, they are lying. Putin and his military repeatedly lied when they said they were targeting ISIS in Syria, when they were actually targeting and killing civilians.
9. DON’T EXPECT THE UNITED NATIONS TO SOLVE ANYTHING. Sorry, but the UN is useless. The UN already proved its fecklessness with the Syria crisis. But the Ukraine war has only further highlighted the extent to which the entire UN system is broken. Given Russia’s permanent seat on the Security Council, Russia will never see any tangible punishment from the UN. UN agencies do good work, but don’t expect anything out of the Security Council other than political theater.
The one thing that gives me hope now that I didn’t have when I handled Syria is the incredible unity of Ukraine’s people, and the unity of the majority of the world and private sector in condemning Russia’s aggression and refusing its business. That unity counts for something. And it’s precisely because of that unity that we have an opportunity to bolster Ukraine’s military sufficiently to get the Russian military to stand down. But time is not on our side. My message to the U.S. and European governments based on my experience in Syria is to stop debating (in particular strong military aid) so much and to move quickly. Do it now before it’s too late.
